Hailey Dunn Case Hypothesis

The following is the expressed opinion of the author, and is only speculation.  No part of this may be reproduced without written permission.  This does not represent the opinion of any law enforcement agency, nor any other than the author, and is based upon the publicly made comments by those involved in the case.

Hailey Dunn, 13, was reported missing in December 27th, 2010, capturing national attention on The Nancy Grace Show a week later.  Many people have weighed in on this case and here is where we have landed:

Domestic Homicide

This is the only murder/missing persons case that I have ever encountered that did not have a "who done it?" element where experts were divided.  In this case, no criminal expert, commentator, profiler, author, etc, concluded stranger abduction.  All publicly spoken or posted pundits concluded that the victim  died as a result of whatever took place inside her home, where drugs, violence, and pornography were present.

In most cases in America, we find experts lining up on "both sides"; the accused having both defenders and detractors among experts.  In this case, like the Casey Anthony case, no one came forth to say "The mother is truthful" in the same manner no expert came forth to say "Casey Anthony is truthful." The only supporter of any renown was Marc Klass, who quickly turned and called for public "shame" upon the mother, appearing bitter at being deceived and giving his initial support to the case.

People have been divided, however, on who was responsible:  the mother, the boyfriend, or both, with most concluding that both were involved.  Whatever support the mother had early in the case, specifically as a 'victim' of the boyfriend's violence, was squandered by her insatiable appetite for public speaking.

While fulfilling her desire for attention or control of information, she inadvertently revealed the elements of this case.

The victim's own grandmother first told the nation that she believed that the boyfriend raped the victim, and that when the victim threatened to report it, he killed her, with the mother covering for him.  This intuition from a grandmother had elements of truth to it, but did not explain the mother's motive for cover up.  Even as some concluded that the mother feared Shawn Adkins and she was a victim of Domestic Violence, the mother, herself, expelled this thought by covering for him, lying for him, and remaining the spokesman of the two.  The mother's lack of reaction to this allegation was not only noteworthy for analysis, but was not lost on the host of the Nancy Grace Show, nor the expert guests who commented on it.

109,000 Deviant Images

It is difficult for us to grasp this number.

 I have a large family and we have, for years, taken many photos. To date, I have under 6,000 photos in iPhoto, which is considerable. I may have another 100 or so on a memory stick, including several videos of the children.  Between the mother and her boyfriend, there were more than 109,000 deviant images, on several computers, and lots of memory sticks, and on at least one video game player.  This is the number of "deviant" images and may not include non deviant pictures or videos. This was a dominant theme in their home, which they called their "hobby" while the extreme number shows it to be an obsession.  The material included child pornography (the sexual arousal of one while viewing the sexual abuse of children), bestiality (the sexual arousal of the one viewing animals being abused, or killed, which may include "stomp" or "stomping videos", that is, a puppy, kitten, or small animal is "stomped on" by  a large boot, and killed) and homemade pornography (in which the mother videotaped herself, her boyfriend and another woman).  Also in the home were "blood lust" videos, where animals are cut up for viewers, and serial killer literature.  This obsession was extreme, and was fueled with drug abuse, including narcotics, cocaine and tranquilizers.  It is difficult to imagine how much time went into downloading and storing this extreme volume of deviant imagery.  It had to be an all-consuming obsession for mother and boyfriend in order to accumulate this volume.

Among the serial killer literature sources was the True Crime library from HLN, where the case of Carlie Bruicia was highlighted; a young girl who was killed after a sleep over:  the same story indicated for deception given by the mother to both police and on national television.

Two children, including the 13 year old victim, were subject to this lethal combination of sexual abuse and violence.  Subsequent public statements by the mother showed that when she wishes to insult one, she combines both violence with genitalia.

Statement Analysis and Scientific Content Analysis 

Statement Analysis has shown deception on the part of both mother and boyfriend, while Content Analysis (SCAN) has revealed wording consistent with homicide.  This was noted from the very first appearance on The Nancy Grace Show.  It is within the content of language that this hypothesis has arisen.  Please note that it was this original analysis that caused both Dunn and her attorney, on television, to threaten suit, bringing much attention to the theory, even though it had already been presented to the nation by Hailey's paternal grandmother.  The mother was aware and angry at the analysis, but continued to speak publicly, including holding her own press conference, and reading from her own time line.  This, as well, showed 'deception indicated' in analysis.

Behavioral Analysis

The elements of the case, itself, brought the town manager to reference simple math and allow conclusion that Hailey was not going to be found alive.  Drugs, violence, child porn, and obvious lying (failed polygraphs) were nothing that needed much analysis.

The mother and boyfriend did not search, nor did the older brother.  They hosted a New Year's Eve party, which was highlighted on national television.  They failed polygraphs, including the revelation that they attempted to deceive the polygraph results by showing up under the influence.

The boyfriend said little and when he did speak, he was unable to bring himself to use a reliable denial, and the mother continued to speak out, even after her attorney said she would not, showing a desperate need to control information, even while continuing to, in content, reveal more details about the case.  Perhaps unprecedented in criminal history, the internet has played a larger role in highlighting the details of this case, as each time the mother spoke, her words were instantly transmitted around the country (and world) subject to analysis.  Nothing would have been wiser than for her to have not spoken.

It is from these statements that I present my own hypothesis on what happened to Hailey Dunn.  I begin with the initial statements of the mother, within the opening minutes of The Nancy Grace Show to establish two points:

1.  The victim was not missing; but deceased.
2.  The mother's objective was to establish herself as innocent.

The mother appeared on The Nancy Grace Show with low affect, immediately suggesting either drug abuse or depression.  She gave a story in which Nancy Grace immediately recognized had come from her own case file:  Carlie Brucia, killed after a sleep over.

Nancy Grace asked how far did Hailey have to go to get to the sleep over.

The mother said, "Four or five blocks."  This was an honest answer with regards to length.  But, like many habitual liars, her need to portray herself in a positive light betrayed her. She went on to boast how her daughter "was not allowed" to go out alone, after dark, so that she would be viewed as a responsible and caring mother.  The problem?

She also referenced her daughter in the past tense; something the mother of a missing child, early in the case, would never do.  This mother did it several times.

Then, the host asked her, "Tell me what happened..." allowing the mother to begin her story wherever she chooses, as we note in analysis, where a person begins their account is not only a choice of priority, but it also can sometimes even tell us why she is speaking:

"She went missing while I was at work."

Smiling for the camera 

Nancy Grace did not ask her when she went missing.  For the mother, this was important that she establish her own alibi.  The show went down hill from there, with the mother returning, night after night, as her story spiraled out of control.  When one does not work from memory, it is stressful to keep track of detail, even in a rehearsed account.  While her 13 year old was alleged to be "missing" the mother 'mentioned' having a toothache.  This was the early indication that drugs were involved.  When asked about the reading material, the boyfriend said he had "looked" at things; an indication of pornography as the mother "read" he "looked."  Later, we learned that the analysis that suggested both drug and pornography being involved was correct.  What we did not know was just how acute the drug abuse was (including cocaine) and how degenerate the pornography was (child porn, bestiality).

Grooming


The household was in obsession with the "blood lust" violent videos, scary mask collection and sexual perversion.  When drugs is viewed in this context, we have a desensitizing process that Hailey likely experienced.  The boyfriend told police that the 13 year old child was "promiscuous" and that he had "concerns" about her.  Her mother also disparaged her in statements, even subtly, something we know that perpetrators sometimes do to their victims from a guilty conscience, as if 'suggesting' the victim caused the crime.  The mother mentioned her "hormones" and her story included a rebellious daughter who not only went to a sleep over without permission but failed to call home at various times.  As the mother told this 'story', the mother, herself, distanced herself from any responsibility to contact the child, including having her son, 3 years older than the victim, contact her.

The child was in a household that began with a young man, years younger than the mother, threatening the mother and daughter with violence.  The mother, defending herself, felt that only threatening her, the mother, meant he was safe, even though she had called the police on him.  He and his "hobby", that is, "blood lust" or the sexual arousal from spilling of blood, came to fruition in this home.

I believe that the victim had been systematically exposed to these elements, particularly experiencing the desensitization process in which what was shocking once, now becomes dull.  This is what pedophiles and predators do to their victim, so that the victim will become less and less resistant, increasing less "shocked" at what he wishes to do the victim.  This victim was not only likely plied with drugs, but the perpetrator had on his side, her own mother's behavior, and the use of pornography.

Children are apt to accept whatever a parent does, to some degree, and one home made pornography video was reportedly stored on the children's X box.  It is unreasonable to believe that the extreme volume of "deviant imagery" at more than 109,000, could be successfully kept from anyone in the household, particularly teenagers.  It is not known what damage could be done to a teenager to see his or her own mother in a pornographic movie, even with a mother who previously worked as a stripper.

The victim's  world was a secret dark world of perversion, drug abuse and violence.  Her mother, Dr. Lillian Glass reported, likely saw her child, only 13, as a "rival" for the boyfriend's affections, even as the mother was the daughter's age when she was first pregnant.

I believe that while under the influence of illegal drugs, the boyfriend was in a sexual position molesting the child victim, when the mother entered the scene, became enraged in jealousy, and violently attacked both boyfriend and daughter, likely striking her daughter from behind, perhaps with blunt force trauma, causing a severe injury to the victim.

At this point, the victim may have been still alive, if not unconscious appearing "like she was asleep" when the two conspired to hide both of their crimes, with, perhaps convincing themselves that the death was inevitable, and they would be blamed.

What must be remembered is that there is enough cooperation between them that neither one could turn on the other:  both are forever tied together in deception.

At some point, by morning, they had come up with a plan to hide the remains and wait until their story could be given to police.  When asked "What happened?", the mother immediately sought to cover herself by reporting "when" something happened:  "she went missing while I was at work."

In describing the "last time" she saw her daughter, the mother's description is eerily similar to what it is like to describe a dead body:


Here is the exchange between Billie Dunn and Nancy Grace, who has grown frustrated with the deceptive responses and does not believe Dunn any longer:

GRACE: Well, I don`t know what to believe, either, because I`m getting all these different stories about you having a New Year`s Eve party, and you`re high when you go take the polygraph. Let me ask you this. Let`s get back to the facts. When was the last time you absolutely are positive you saw Hailey?

Note that Nancy Grace frames the words "you having a New Year's Eve party" within her sentence recognizing that the gathering, the serving of alcohol, and the watching of the ball drop define a party, even if Dunn wishes to deny. She moves past this, but then asks the simple question about the last time Dunn saw Hailey. 

BILLIE DUNN: I saw her Sunday night.

This is an example of a truthful statement as she has no need for additional language nor qualifiers as she has in so many other statements.  It is unusual for the mother to answer something so plainly. This makes it important.  Please carefully note that this is a truthful sentence.  It's structure shows truth:

1.  Pronoun "I" making it strong.
2.  past tense verb, "saw"
3.  Time period given without qualification.

This is a truthful statement and it is the last time she saw her daughter...alive.

GRACE: What time, 10:00 PM?

Mistake.  She should ask "what time?" without giving the subject the answer. 

BILLIE DUNN: Probably around 10:00.

Two qualifiers for 10:00, "probably" and "around" making it a weak assertion.  The mother says that this was the last time she saw the victim.  

GRACE: Now, was that when you looked in her room and it is was dark and you thought she was lying in her bed?
  

BILLIE DUNN:   "I did see her in her room, but I saw her watching TV. 

Monday morning, I looked in her room and it was dark and it looked like she was laying in bed. But I didn`t go touch her, make sure that was her. I just peeked in to make sure she was in bed to ease my mind and..."

Do you notice something about this?

When was the last time you saw your daughter?  10PM that night. Now, she says she saw her the next morning on the way to work. 

If the last time she saw her daughter was 10PM that night, what she sees now is not her daughter.  

1.  "I did see her in her room, but..."  The word but can refute, negate, or minimize what preceded it.  What has caused her to make comparison by putting a pause in her sentence and insert, in less than a micro-second, the word "but"? This is allegedly Sunday night.

2.  We have since learned that pornography made by Billie Dunn, was stored on the children's X- box.

3.  The subject feels it is important enough to add in "TV"

4.  The need to explain why:

In the SCAN technique from LSI, we give "so, since, to, therefore, because" the color coding blue as the highest level of sensitivity that can be found in a statement of someone reported what happened.  It is here that the person has a need to tell us "why" something was done.  This is often the solving of a case.  A single "blue" is a strong sensitivity indicator but two or more "blues" is called a "cluster of blues" in which the information contained with the cluster is the most critical information of a case.  Just as we highlight "left" in blue, we highlight "because" in any form that seeks to explain why something was done.

If a question is "what did you do?" and it is answered with an explanation "why", it is critical.

Here we have three blues in one short statement and come to the most important part of everything she had told us.

We are at the most critical point of what happened to Hailey, as described by her mother.

Note that she doesn't tell us that Hailey was laying in bed, but rather says it looked like she was laying in bed.   This is how she appeared to her mother.

Most might say "she was laying in bed" but she said it only "looked like she was laying in bed"; as if she is viewing a corpse, who looks peaceful, like as if she is sleeping.  She could not bring herself to say she was laying in bed because Hailey was deceased and her corpse looked "like" rather than "was laying" in bed.

This one small word, "like", means to compare, is critical and it is why attorneys do not let guilty clients speak out on television.

She was viewing a corpse.  What do most people NOT do to a corpse?  She is consistent here:

Next the mother states what she didn't do, touch her.

That which is reported in the negative is always important for the subject to use additional words to make a statement:  the mother didn't touch what looked like, but was not, someone sleeping.

The mother didn't touch what looked like it was sleeping in the bed.
Ask yourself in what circumstance you would touch something to make sure what it was.

 Would you touch your child to make sure it was him or her in bed?

We sometimes touch pets we think have died, only to find them sleeping.  Have you ever said that you didn't touch your sleeping child?  It sounds awkward because it is awkward.

At this point in the account, the victim is dead and the mother cannot bring herself to enter the room and touch her.

She cannot do it.

Most people do not like touching a dead body.  Dead bodies can look "like" they are sleeping but people do not like to touch them.  Even a dead dog in the street:  people often poke it with a stick, rather than directly touch it.  It is a common description from children who attend wakes: "she just looked like she was sleeping."

The mother is speaking from memory.   The mother is taking you, the listener, in with her, back to the next morning that, whatever happened the night before, the victim did not wake up and now is there, as if she was "like" laying in bed but she was not asleep.  The words are slipping out even as she attempts to control them, like marbles in a cabinet (Gough), the words are difficult to control while answering a question.

For her, the body looked "like" it was asleep. 

Now note that the victim "peeked in" to make sure she was in bed to ease her mind.  I believe this is true.  She needed to tell us why she did something.  This is critical for all statement analysis.

 Why did the mother need to ease her mind?

There was no report of a missing child.
There was no sleep over.
There was no friends over.
 There was nothing that we know of, according to her story, that would cause her a need for comfort.

Something had happened  that the mother was in need of comfort and something to ease her mind.  

The Marking of Time.

We mark time by what happens, not by what does not happen.  There is an infinite number of things that did not happen.  When the mother marked time by what she did not feel, what did not happen, it sounds awkward and without sense because it is the artificial placement of emotions.

"Where were you when President Reagan was shot?"
"Where were you when the terrorists attacked on 9/11?"

These questions 'mark time' based upon things that happened; not upon things that didn't happen.

"I didn't get worried when I didn't hear from her" the mother said indicating an artificial placement of the absence of emotions.

From near 10PM Sunday night until Monday morning is the time period in which the victim was killed in a manner that involved both mother and boyfriend. 

I call this a "domestic homicide" rather than a "sexual homicide" because the mother may not have been involved in the sexual activity that took place, making it a molestation by the boyfriend, but a domestic homicide by the mother, though the home life was rife with sexual perversion.  This may explain the lack of references to "water" by the mother:  she may not have been involved in the sexual abuse as the boyfriend may have been.  Yet, the mother must be equally culpable because her narcissistic personality would have caused her to testify against the boyfriend, particularly at the urging of her attorney, who has made it public knowledge of such a strategy.

In conclusion, based upon the language and behavior of the mother and boyfriend, I believe that Hailey Dunn was a victim of neglect first, with her mother deliberately putting her own desires ahead of the safety of her children, inviting in a man she had just 5 weeks earlier, called police on.

The victim  was being groomed for sexual abuse by the boyfriend.  The perversion that possessed the home spilled over until the mother exploded in anger, raging mostly against her daughter, whom she viewed as a rival, as she found her engaged in sexual activity (abuse) with the boyfriend.

The victim may have been pregnant.

The victim may have died as a result of both inflicted blows and drugs in her system.  The daughter was closer in age to the boyfriend than the mother, who has exhibited an immaturity and narcissism, as well as an inability to empathize with her daughter, who's need for safety and wellbeing were subordinated to the mother's own drug abuse, obsession with sexual violence, and desire to be with her boyfriend.

The mother appears to have instructed the boyfriend on how to hide the remains, though I believe she may have instructed him not to reveal the exact location to her.  The language revealed that the story of the sleep over did not come from experiential memory, which is why she struggled to keep track of it, and why she was so upset being spoken to by police separate from the boyfriend.  The coveralls became an issue of "sensitivity" in both mother and boyfriend's statements, as was his statement about "killing a deer" an insight to his juvenile, stunted mind.

Both failed polygraphs, to this, Statement Analysis agrees.

The boyfriend is someone of fear, who collects horror masks, while fantasizing about sexual abuse of children and animals.  His fear, as covered by the mask, rules his mind and is something that he will face in decision making time regarding the death penalty and time in a Texas prison as a pedophile.  He appeared to be readily controlled by the mother, and when his own family vied for control, they lost out to the mother, as she dominated him, even to the point of talking him into taking the polygraph, asking him to trust her, while she convinced him that he could pass the polygraph by using tranquilizers; not understanding the dynamics of establishing a baseline.  Without her goading, he likely would have not polygraphed and not given the interviews he did.

The mother was raised in violence, claiming both that her father pimped her out, and that she eye-witnessed his murder.  She now disputes the former, but the latter is not denied, and if true, certainly speaks to the extreme damage a child would experience, and the acceptance of violence.  The account given by the mother's private investigator includes not only seeing her father gunned down, but that shortly after his death, the mother was seen being sexually promiscuous.  This combination of violence and sex would come to dominate a child's psyche, who, herself became pregnant at a very young age, and explains the stunted maturity that shows itself in a calloused middle aged mother of an 18 year old, who continues to dress and act out like an immature teenager, replete with partying and posing with questionable company. The mother is said to be a sexually manipulating person, to which the background lends credence.

Hailey Dunn died in that home, as Nancy Grace said on a revisitation of the case on HLN.  Hailey Dunn died at the hands of both her mother and her mother's boyfriend, making them both culpable for her murder, linking them together in a conspiracy of silence.  I believe we will learn that the victim was initially attacked by her mother, but may have been unable to struggle due to the presence of illegal drugs, given to her by the boyfriend, to facilitate his deviant sexual perpetration upon her.  In this sense, it is a "sexual homicide" though we have not had many statements from the boyfriend in which to analyze.

Child pornography charges have not been brought against either, to date, as the murder case takes precedent.  I expect these charges to come along with the murder charges as well as a viable explanation as to why there was a delay.

I expect that the remains will be identified as Hailey Dunn because Shawn Adkins said she would be found there, and I expect that arrests will be effected upon both mother and boyfriend.  I expect the remains to yield critical evidence.

The Remains in Scurry County 

I believe that the delay in identifying the remains is not due to DNA testing results, but due to the due diligence applied to this case, including consulting forensic experts.  The delay suggests not only due diligence on the part of the prosecutors, but that the remains may have yielded physical evidence to be used in the murder trial.

I believe the remains will yield critical and vital information.

I believe that the mother will have a high priced attorney who will attempt to turn this case into the "Casey Anthony" bonanza, and that this strategy will backfire, as the nation does not hold the fascination with the mother as it did with the partying Casey Anthony, particularly due to the elements of drug abuse and child pornography.   Said attorney would seek to benefit from a trial, rather than a plea bargain, like Jose Baez, but will find, instead, any professional courtesy he has enjoyed, to be quickly dissipated in a case where there are no marketable characters. Said attorney may seek to raise bail money by selling pictures and videos, but will not find a national buyer in the way Baez sold the video to ABC.

I believe, as I have previously written, that the boyfriend will have a court-appointed attorney because his family will not sacrifice their home, retirement and savings for him, and that having a court-appointed attorney will mean he will not make bail, and will seek a plea bargain.  His family will resent that the mother has a high priced attorney and if successful, will convince him to accept a plea bargain and testify against the mother, in exchange for avoiding the death penalty.

It is difficult to hypothesize how prosecutors will react to overtures from defense attorneys because the bargaining chip:  the location of the body, is no longer on the table. It is possible that the mother's high priced attorney will remove himself from the case, once he sees that his client is not a sympathetic character that the networks are interested in.  This may be contingent on how HLN (Nancy Grace producers) react to the news of the arrests.

Hailey Dunn died as a result of a domestic homicide, at the hands of her mother and her mother's boyfriend.  It is only my opinion.

I expect prosecutors to press for the death penalty.